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Preliminary Revised ERCOT Load Forecast Shows Reserve Margin Above 16% Until 2019
ERCOT yesterday posted a preliminary load forecast using a preliminarily revised methodology, and if the new forecast peak loads are inputted into the May 2013 Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, ERCOT is forecast to have a reserve margin in excess of 16% until 2019.
Specifically, if the preliminary revised forecast peaks are used in the May CDR, the reserve margin would be as follows:
The preliminary revised forecast, still the subject of a January 27 workshop, reflects certain changes recommended by Itron, which had been retained to review ERCOT's forecasting. Itron is still working on its growth index recommendations. ERCOT expects delivery by mid-February.
The preliminary revised forecast generally forecasts peak demand growth of 1.2%-1.5%, and differs from the peak load forecast used in the May 2013 CDR as follows:
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January 23, 2014
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Copyright 2010-13 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
Year Reserve Margin
2014 16.75%
2015 16.69%
2016 17.23%
2017 17.88%
2018 16.35%
2019 13.61%
2020 12.27%
May CDR Prelim. Revised
Year Peak (MW) Growth Peak (MW) Growth
2014 69,807 68,096
2015 72,071 3.2% 69,057 1.4%
2016 74,191 2.9% 70,014 1.4%
2017 75,409 1.6% 70,871 1.2%
2018 76,186 1.0% 71,806 1.3%
2019 76,882 0.9% 72,859 1.5%
2020 77,608 0.9% 73,784 1.3%
2021 78,380 1.0% 74,710 1.3%
2022 79,055 0.9% 75,631 1.2%
2023 79,651 0.8% 76,550 1.2%
2024 N/A N/A 77,471 1.2%
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