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ERCOT Expects Adequate Electricity to Meet Fall, Winter Demand
ERCOT expects to have sufficient electricity available to keep up with peak demands this fall and the upcoming winter, it said in two seasonal assessments.
ERCOT yesterday released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for fall and the preliminary outlook for the coming winter.
"We are going into fall with about 2,100 MW of new generation resources in the system that we didn't have this time last year, and we expect that there will be sufficient generation available to serve a range of possible scenarios," said Ken McIntyre, vice president of Grid Planning and Operations for ERCOT.
With more than 75,500 megawatts (MW) of generation available overall, ERCOT expects to be well-prepared for the anticipated peak demand of about 48,700 MW this fall. Electric generation providers typically schedule maintenance outages during fall and spring to prepare for more extreme weather — and the corresponding higher demand for power — that occurs during winter and summer. It is typical for more than 9,000 MW to be off-line for maintenance during fall, and unplanned power plant outages could range from the typical 3,400 MW to nearly 7,000 MW. Taking these factors into account, ERCOT expects reserves to range from about 2,600 MW, if peak demand is significantly higher than expected, to more than 14,000 MW under expected conditions.
ERCOT's preliminary winter assessment predicts sufficient generation, except potentially under the most severe demand and outage scenarios.
At 57,256 MW, peak demand in winter 2014 neared the winter record of 57,265 MW set in February 2011, and peak demand due to cold weather in early March was about 11,500 MW higher than the previous March record set in 2002.
The final winter SARA, currently scheduled for release Oct. 31, will reflect a more near-term weather forecast and any necessary updates associated with the factors identified in the preliminary report.
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September 3, 2014
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Copyright 2010-14 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
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