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ERCOT Files Reserve Margin Report
ERCOT has filed a report on simulations used to identify target reserve margin levels (Planning Reserve Margin) at which specific physical reliability standards would be satisfied
The report concludes that if the target reserve margin were based on the metrics of 2.4 hours per year or 0.001% normalized EUE (Expected Unserved Energy), the resulting reserve margins would be 12.0% or 11.5%, respectively.
The 1-day-in-l0-year standard (0.1 LOLE, Loss of Load Expectation) results in a 16.75% target reserve margin for the ERCOT region
If the impact of load forecast error is removed, the target reserve margins which achieve the specified reliability standards shift down by approximately 1.25%.
Base case results for each reserve margin studied were as follows:
See ERCOT's full report in Project 42302 (click here)
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January 23, 2015
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Copyright 2010-15 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
Normalized
Reserve LOLE LOLH EUE EUE
Margin Events Per Hours Per MWh EUE (MWh)/
% Year Year Total Load (MWh)
7.6% 4.07 14.33 21,563 0.0062%
9.7% 2.00 6.57 8,569 0.0025%
11.9% 0.88 2.68 3,041 0.0009%
13.0% 0.55 1.61 1,653 0.0005%
14.2% 0.33 0.95 895 0.0003%
15.3% 0.20 0.55 493 0.0001%
16.5% 0.12 0.32 241 0.0001%
17.7% 0.06 0.17 123 0.0000%
18.9% 0.03 0.09 53 0.0000%
21.5% 0.01 0.02 13 0.0000%
24.2% 0.00 0.01 4 0.0000%
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