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ERCOT CDR Shows Sufficient Reserve Margin Through 2022

May 4, 2015

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Copyright 2010-15 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Karen Abbott • kabbott@energychoicematters.com

ERCOT's latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows that reserve margins are expected to exceed 15 percent through 2021, and above the target 13.75% through 2022.

The May 2015 CDR anticipates reserve margins as follows (Dec. 2014 CDR also shown for comparison):

Reserve Margin
         Dec. 2014      May 2015
2016       17.1%          17.0%
2017       18.1%          18.5%
2018       16.5%          21.4%
2019       13.6%          18.7%
2020       12.4%          17.1%
2021       11.4%          16.1%
2022       10.0%          14.6%
2023        8.6%          13.2%
2024        7.3%          11.8%

Link to May 2015 CDR

ERCOT also released a final seasonal assessment which forecasts adequate supplies for the summer of 2015.

"Based on the information we have today, ERCOT expects to have sufficient resources to keep up with demand this summer," said ERCOT Director of System Planning Warren Lasher. "While we anticipate plenty of reserves, we also remind consumers that unusually extensive generation outages during extremely hot weather or localized challenges in some areas, such as the Lower Rio Grande Valley, could result in a need to reduce demand on all or part of the system."

The new assessment includes an updated peak demand forecast that reflects milder summer weather, compared to the 12-year average weather used in the preliminary report released in March.

"Current trends favor weather conditions similar to those we saw in 2013 and 2014," said ERCOT Senior Meteorologist Chris Coleman. "We also may continue to experience somewhat wetter conditions, which is good news as long-term drought conditions continue to improve in much of the state."

Expected generation resources have increased since release of the preliminary assessment, with addition of a 717 MW natural gas-fired plant that will begin operating earlier than previously projected, more than offsetting removal of a 294 MW project that has been delayed. New wind generation resources totaling 1,265 MW are included as an additional 152 MW of planned resources, or 12 percent of total nameplate capacity. Additionally, a three-unit, 403-MW facility, which previously was affected by a lack of cooling water, is expected to return this summer.

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