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New ERCOT CDR Shows Reserve Margins Exceeding 17% Through 2025

May 3, 2016

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Copyright 2010-16 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

ERCOT's latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows that reserve margins are expected to exceed 17 percent through 2025, and 15 percent through 2026

The May 2016 CDR anticipates reserve margins as follows (December 2015 CDR also shown for comparison):

CDR Reserve Margin
       Dec. 2015     May 2016
2017       20.7%      18.2%
2018       25.7%      25.4%
2019       22.9%      23.2%
2020       21.8%      22.4%
2021       21.1%      21.6%
2022       19.9%      20.5%
2023       18.8%      19.4%
2024       17.7%      18.3%
2025       16.6%      17.2%
2026        N/A       15.9%

Link to May 2016 CDR

Although expected generation capacity for 2017 has decreased by about 1,700 MW since the previous CDR, ERCOT said that the May 2016 CDR continues to show significant growth in new gas-fired generation. Based on current planning criteria, the report includes nearly 6,200 MW in new gas-fired generation by summer 2018, topping 7,400 MW in new capacity in 2020. Some of these anticipated additions could be offset by additional unit retirements that are not currently reflected in the planning horizon, ERCOT said

ERCOT also released a Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for this summer which anticipates adequate generation capacity (click here)

"We expect to have enough generation available to serve consumer needs this summer, based on the current forecast," said ERCOT Director of System Planning Warren Lasher. "However, hotter-than-normal weather combined with low-wind conditions or high generation outage rates could cause operating reserves to drop below target levels, making it necessary to take additional actions to maintain grid reliability."

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