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Michigan PSC "Remains Concerned" Lower Peninsula LSEs Do Not Have Adequate Capacity

July 25, 2016

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Copyright 2010-16 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

The Michigan PSC issued an analysis in which the PSC said that, while Michigan's near-term electric supply outlook for the summer of 2017 in the Lower Peninsula has improved slightly, the five-year review again shows, "the tightening of capacity supplies overall, in both the state and the Midwest"

"The Commission remains concerned that load serving entities in the Lower Peninsula do not have adequate capacity within the state to meet reserve requirements," the PSC said

"In addition, there is uncertainty about whether capacity supplies at the regional level will be available to fill this gap. This potential shortfall could create reliability challenges during periods of peak demand in the 2017-2018 timeframe ... The regional supply outlook is important when assessing our situation because load serving entities in Zone 7 still need to rely on imports from out of state to meet the minimum required reserve margin," the PSC said

"Given the overall electric energy outlook in Michigan and the broader region, long lead times for planning and developing new supply options, and the reliability risks inherent with tightening power supplies, the MPSC will increase its focus in the next couple of years on solutions to ensure customers can be served in a reliable, cost-effective manner over the long term," said MPSC Chairman Sally Talberg

The PSC's analysis shows that the near-term supply outlook for the summer of 2017 in the Lower Peninsula's Zone 7 is forecasted to improve, despite the unexpected closure of a unit at DTE Electric's River Rouge plant in November 2015 due to turbine failure. The MPSC staff's analysis last year for 2017 showed a capacity shortfall of 520 MW, while its analysis this year for 2017 shows a capacity shortfall of only 270 MW. In its analysis, the MPSC staff notes that resources outside the zone are expected to be available to import power into Michigan.

Both the areas served by Indiana Michigan Power Company in southwest Michigan and the Upper Peninsula are projected to have adequate supplies.

At the regional level, the supplies are forecasted to be adequate overall for 2017 but by 2018 the Midwest region as a whole will not meet the reserve margin requirements, if the announced retirements of electric generating plants in Illinois actually materialize, the PSC said

"Resource adequacy continues to be a key priority for the MPSC, especially in light of the changing generation mix throughout the nation and the closing of many coal plants, including those in Michigan," added Talberg. "From the Commission’s perspective, this can best be achieved through clear guidelines for load serving entities and a transparent process to identify, vet and approve various supply- and demand-side options."

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