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ERCOT CDR Shows Reserve Margins In Excess Of 18% Through 2021, In Excess of 15% Through 2023

ERCOT Expects Sufficient Generation For Summer 2017

May 3, 2017

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Copyright 2010-17 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

ERCOT's latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report indicates sufficient reserve margins through 2024

The May 2017 CDR forecasts the following summer reserve margins (December 2016 CDR forecast listed for comparison):

    Dec 2016 CDR    May 2017 CDR
2018       20.2%        18.9%
2019       19.6%        18.5%
2020       19.5%        18.6%
2021       19.0%        18.3%
2022       16.7%        16.8%
2023       16.0%        15.3%
2024       14.6%        13.8%
2025       13.2%        12.5%
2026       11.7%        11.0%
2027       N/A           9.6%

ERCOT also released a final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) and reported that it expects to have sufficient generation to serve forecasted peak demand under most scenarios during the summer months, June through September.

The summer 2017 SARA report includes a summer peak demand forecast nearing 73,000 megawatts (MW), based on average peak weather conditions during the past 14 years.

"At this time, we do not anticipate any generation resource adequacy issues during the coming months, although we could see a need for conservation in the case of extended extreme temperatures or very low wind generation output during peak conditions," said Warren Lasher, ERCOT senior director of System Planning

Total generation resource capacity for the upcoming summer is estimated at close to 82,000 MW.

ERCOT also anticipates there will be enough installed generation capacity to serve system needs this fall season, October through November. A preliminary fall SARA report forecasts peak demand of about 56,000 MW, with expected generation resources totaling nearly 87,000 MW. The final fall SARA report will be released in September.

See the reports below for more:

May 2017 CDR

Summer 2017 SARA

Fall 2017 SARA (preliminary)

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