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ERCOT May CDR Shows Reserve Margins Increasing Starting In 2020
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ERCOT's May 2018 Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows reserve margins increasing gradually starting in 2020
The planning reserve margin for summer 2018 has increased to 11 percent based on the resource updates incorporated in the final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report.
ERCOT's May 2018 CDR report projects reserve margins as follows, with the projected reserve margins generally increasing, versus the December 2017 CDR, starting in 2020
Since the December 2017 CDR report, the 2019 summer demand forecast was lowered to 74,202 MW due to a delay in a new industrial facility located on the Texas coast. The peak demand forecast also has been adjusted upward starting in 2021 to reflect the planned integration of Lubbock Power & Light customers.
The CDR also reflects updated reports from generation developers on the in-service dates for gas-fired, wind and solar resources expected to go into commercial operation through 2023.
Regarding summer 2018, based on normal operating conditions, ERCOT expects to have sufficient generation to meet customer demand this summer. The final summer SARA report includes a 72,756 MW summer peak load forecast based on normal weather conditions. This forecast is more than 1,600 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set in August 2016.
Since the preliminary summer SARA was released in March, total generation resource capacity has increased by more than 500 MW due to units returning from mothball status and extended outage status, as well as a planned gas-fired resource becoming available earlier than initially expected.
Links:
May 2018 CDR
Summer 2018 SARA
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April 30, 2018
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Copyright 2010-17 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
Year Reserve Margin Reserve Margin
Dec-17 CDR May-18 CDR
2018 9.3% --
2019 11.7% 11.0%
2020 11.8% 12.3%
2021 11.1% 12.0%
2022 9.0% 10.9%
2023 -- 8.9%
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