ERCOT CDR Shows 2021 Reserve Margin Exceeding 15%, Reaching 27% In 2022

December 16, 2020

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Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

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ERCOT today released its December Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report and said that, "New generation resources, including a significant amount of utility-scale solar, continue to be added to the ERCOT region at a rapid pace, resulting in higher planning reserve margins over the next several years."

The reserve margins from the December 2020 CDR are as follows:

December 2020 CDR
Year     Reserve Margin
2021         15.5%
2022         27.3%
2023         27.2%
2024         26.6%
2025         25.4%

For comparison, the reserve margins from the May 2020 CDR were as follows

May 2020 CDR
Year     Reserve Margin
2021         17.3%
2022         19.7%
2023         18.0%
2024         15.9%
2025         14.1%

The planning reserve margin for summer 2021 is forecasted to be 15.5%, based on resource updates provided to ERCOT from generation developers and an updated peak demand forecast. "This is down 1.8% from what was reported in the May CDR due to solar and wind project delays and cancellations. Between 2022 and 2025, the planning reserve margin is expected to reach 25-27%," ERCOT said

"In 2018 and 2019, ERCOT experienced historically-low planning reserve margins due to plant retirements," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "These business cycles of retirements and new investments are expected in the ERCOT market, and it is ERCOT’s job to maintain reliable electric service through the various changing conditions." Any changes to generation resources will be accounted for in future CDR reports.

The ERCOT region continues to see growth in customer demand, and will be incorporating demand served by Lubbock Power and Light beginning in June 2021. The forecasted peak demand for summer 2021 is 77,244 MW, and was calculated using revised economic data released by Moody’s Analytics in August. ERCOT’s current system-wide peak demand record is 74,820 MW, set on Aug. 12, 2019, between 4 and 5 p.m.

"ERCOT has seen a significant increase in utility-scale solar resources, and based on the grid operator’s current interconnection queue for new generation projects, this trend is expected to continue over the next several years," ERCOT said

"The grid operator is also seeing continued and accelerated growth in rooftop solar projects. In response, ERCOT included its first, separate rooftop solar PV forecast in the CDR. The forecast was created to show the incremental capacity growth beyond the historical growth trend reflected in the load forecast," ERCOT said

Based on preliminary data from generation owners, planned resources expected to be available by summer 2021 have a summer-rated capacity of 5,620 MW. This includes 816 MW of gas-fired resources, 1,765 MW of wind resources and 3,039 MW of utility-scale solar resources. An additional 9,273 MW of summer-rated solar capacity is expected to be added by June 2022.

Resources totaling 1,917 MW of installed capacity have been approved by ERCOT for commercial operations since the May CDR, and a total of 12,525 MW of installed capacity became eligible for inclusion in the CDR.

"While there are only a small number of battery facilities on the ERCOT system at this time, there are a significant number of battery projects in the interconnection queue. Through the Battery Energy Storage Task Force, ERCOT has worked with stakeholders to develop new market rules for integrating these resources into the ERCOT system. The next step will be to study operational data for existing batteries in order to better understand their contributions during peak hours so their capacity can be appropriately accounted for in future CDR reports," ERCOT said

"As ERCOT prepares the summer assessment, it is mindful of the accelerating pace of drought in Texas, which could significantly affect summer weather and demand for electricity. The mid-year CDR report will be released in May 2021," ERCOT said

Link to December 2020 CDR

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