|
|
|
|
Final Report Estimates ERCOT Market Equilibrium Reserve Margin As 12.25%; Higher Than 11% Economically Optimal Level
The following story is brought free of charge to readers by EC Infosystems, the exclusive EDI provider of EnergyChoiceMatters.com
A final report prepared by a consultant for ERCOT estimates a market equilibrium reserve margin (MERM) of 12.25% under projected 2024 market conditions
"We estimate a market equilibrium reserve margin of 12.25% under projected 2024 market conditions ... This is higher than our MERM projection of 10.25% in our 2018 study,
however, the projections of system reliability are nearly identical at 0.5 Loss of Load Expectation
(LOLE)," the study says
The report estimates 11.00% as the economically optimal reserve margin (EORM), based on the risk-neutral, probability-weighted-average cost of 80,000 simulations. "However, the estimated societal costs are relatively flat with respect to reserve margin near the minimum, with only modest variation between reserve margins of 10.00% and 12.00%," the report said
"In terms of reliability, our probabilistic simulations indicate that under base case assumptions with a
market equilibrium reserve margin of 12.25%, the system is expected to experience 0.5 days per year
Loss of Load Expection [sic] (LOLE) ... It is
also important to note that this LOLE is the same value reported in the 2018 study at the MERM of
10.25%. Intuitively, the higher MERM in this study would supply higher reliability. However, the
higher Equivalent Forced Outage Rate (EFOR) assumptions, combined with a discrepancy between
the renewable credit (or reliability contribution) estimated for CDR
reserve margin reporting and the
actual reliability value provided by these resources, increase the MERM without an improvement to
reliability," the study says
The report also studied the values on various scenarios, such as different load forecasts and a "high renewables" case
See the final report here
ADVERTISEMENT Copyright 2010-21 Energy Choice Matters. If you wish to share this story, please
email or post the website link; unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication
prohibited.
January 15, 2021
Email This Story
Copyright 2010-21 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
NEW Jobs on RetailEnergyJobs.com:
• NEW! -- Sales Channel Manager -- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Retail Energy Account Executive -- Texas
• NEW! -- Supply and Pricing Analyst -- Retail Supplier -- DFW
• NEW! -- Lead Data Analyst
-- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Senior Energy Pricing Analyst
• NEW! -- Senior Energy Advisor
• NEW! -- IT Billing Project Manager
• NEW! -- IT Billing Business Analyst
• NEW! -- Financial Analyst -- Retail Supplier -- DFW
• NEW! -- Sr. Energy Intelligence Analyst
• NEW! -- Channel Partner Sales Manager -- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Sr. Billing Analyst -- Retail Supplier
• Director of Regulatory Affairs -- Retail Supplier -- Houston
|
|
|