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ERCOT Posts Final Seasonal Assessment Of Resource Adequacy For Fall 2021
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ERCOT has posted the Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for the Fall 2021 season.
After the Fall 2021 SARA, ERCOT will publish only a single, final SARA for each season and will no longer publish a preliminary SARA.
"The ERCOT region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak
demands in the upcoming fall season, October – November 2021, under normal system
conditions and several of the capacity reserve risk scenarios examined," the SARA states
"Based on expected fall peak weather conditions, the preliminary fall SARA anticipates a
seasonal peak demand of 62,662 MW, which is unchanged from the preliminary SARA
released on May 6th. This demand forecast has been adjusted downward by 120 MW to
account for the load reduction impact of incremental forecasted rooftop solar capacity," the SARA states
Reserve capacity is projected as 27,771 MW under normal system conditions
"ERCOT is projecting a decrease in reserve capacity of 868 MW since the release of the
preliminary fall SARA in May, based on data provided by resource owners and developers.
The decrease is mostly due to an extended outage for a coal unit. Planned resource capacity
totaling 5,277 MW is expected to be available to meet the fall peak demand. The planned
projects are comprised of gas-fired units, wind and utility-scale solar. Another 644 MW of
battery energy storage capacity is also expected to be available, although this capacity is
currently assumed to provide Ancillary Services rather than sustained capacity for meeting
system peak loads," the SARA states
"The report includes a thermal outage forecast of 14,774 MW based on historical outage data
from the past three fall seasons (starting with 2018). Due to a change in categorizing a type
of outage called an Unavoidable Extension, unplanned outages (previously called forced
outages) increased while planned outages (previously called maintenance outages)
decreased by a like amount. This change resulted in greater unplanned outage amounts for
the high and extreme unplanned outage cases. The Background tab now includes more
outage accounting information as well as details regarding the change in categorizing
Unavoidable Extension outages," the SARA states
"Starting with this SARA report, ERCOT expanded the low wind output scenario adjustment to
include low solar output as well. Similar to the preliminary fall SARA report, the final fall
SARA includes a tab that provides a set of extreme scenarios. These extreme scenarios
assume that multiple severe system conditions occur simultaneously, resulting in very low
probability, high impact system outcomes," the SARA states
See the SARA here
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September 3, 2021
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Copyright 2010-21 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
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