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ERCOT Posts Winter Seasonal Assessment Of Resource Adequacy

November 19, 2021

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Copyright 2010-21 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

The following story is brought free of charge to readers by EC Infosystems, the exclusive EDI provider of EnergyChoiceMatters.com

ERCOT has posted the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Report for the Winter 2021-2022 season

The report states, "Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical winter grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide forecasted peak demand for the upcoming winter season, December 2021 - February 2022."

"The forecasted peak demand is 62,001 MW and is based on the average weather conditions at the time of the winter peak demand. As part of our aggressive grid management planning, we have also included additional low-probability, high-impact scenarios," the report states

"Nearly 85,000 MW of resource capacity is expected to be available for the winter peak. This amount is all operational capacity; there is no planned capacity expected to become operational by the start of the winter season based on the latest developer information. This is largely due to the new practice of classifying projects approved for grid synchronization as operational rather than planned resources. Two thermal generation resources—a coal and a gas-fired unit—are out of service for the winter season. Also noteworthy is that three units (two gas-fired and one biomass-fired) representing 223 MW that previously operated only during the summer season are now planned for year-around operation. However, one of the gas units (61 MW) is the aforementioned unit experiencing an extended outage," the report states

"The winter SARA includes a thermal generating unit outage assumption of 8,988 MW during the winter months, which is based on historical winter outage data for the last three winter seasons: 2018/19, 2019/20, and partial 2020/21. (Unplanned outages between 2/15/21 to 2/28/21 are excluded in the base analysis due to the exceptional impact of Winter Storm Uri.)," the report states

"The winter SARA includes two Risk Scenario tabs: Base & Moderate Risk Scenarios, and Extreme Risk Scenarios. The set of Extreme Risk scenarios has been expanded to include a new 'extreme low' renewables output assumption as well as estimates of the thermal and renewable outage improvements due to the Texas Public Utility Commission's October 2021 Electric Weatherization Standard and voluntary weatherization activities conducted by natural gas supply and pipeline operators," the report states

Several extreme (e.g. combination of several extreme and/or high load, high outages, and low renewables output) scenarios do indicate risk of EEA3 load shed under such scenarios

See the SARA report for the projections under all scenarios

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