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ERCOT CDR Shows 36% Reserve Margin For 2023, Over 40% Through 2027

SARA Shows Nearly 23% Summer 2022 Reserve Margin, Sufficient Capacity To Serve Demand Under Most Risk Scenarios

May 16, 2022

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Copyright 2010-21
Reporting by Paul Ring •

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ERCOT posted its May 2022 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region

The May 2022 report shows the following reserve margins (Dec 2021 CDR data also shown)

Reserve Margin

       Dec       May
       2021      2022
2023:  39.4%     36.2%
2024:  41.7%     46.2%
2025:  40.3%     45.9%
2026:  38.7%     44.2%
2027:            42.8%

The forecasted peak demand for summer 2023 is 79,857 MW, while the firm peak demand is 76,505 MW. The winter 2023-2024 peak demand forecast is 66,454 MW and firm peak demand forecast is 63,571 MW.

The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2023 is forecasted to be 36.2%. This is 3.2 percentage points lower than the 39.4% margin for summer 2023 reported in the December 2021 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2023. The Reserve Margin peaks at 46.2% for summer 2024. Resource data comes from generation capacity developers and owners as reported in ERCOT's Resource Integration and Ongoing Operations (RIOO) system, as well as other data collection mechanisms described in the ERCOT Protocols, ERCOT said in the report

Planned resource capacity expected for the 2023 summer peak demand totals 13,117 MW. This includes 581 MW of summer-rated gas-fired resources, 834 MW of wind resources, and 11,702 MW of solar resources. These amounts of solar and wind capacity are what ERCOT expects to be available on an average basis during peak demand hours (the peak average capacity contribution), ERCOT said in the report

Developers also anticipate adding 4,831 MW of battery storage capacity for summer 2023. This storage capacity is currently assumed to provide grid reliability services (Ancillary Services) for short periods of time rather than to support customer demand on a sustained basis during peak demand hours. Therefore, ERCOT assigns no capacity value to this resource for the reserve margin calculations, ERCOT said in the report

ERCOT also posted its 2022 Summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA)

"The ERCOT region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak demands in the upcoming summer season, June - September 2022, under normal system conditions and most of the reserve capacity risk scenarios examined," the SARA stated

"With continued economic growth across the state, ERCOT anticipates a summer 2022 peak demand of 77,317 MW, which accounts for load reductions based on an incremental rooftop solar capacity forecast. This would be a new system-wide peak demand record for the region," the SARA stated

"ERCOT anticipates there will be 91,392 MW of resource capacity available during summer peak demand hours, which includes 473 MW of planned gas-fired, utility-scale solar and wind capacity. Additionally, ERCOT expects to have 2,035 MW of operational battery storage resources, which includes 283 MW of planned additions. While some of these battery storage resources may help meet customer demand, they are not currently included in ERCOT’s capacity contribution for summer because they are not expected to provide sustained capacity for meeting system peak loads," the SARA stated

"A noteworthy development is that several operational generation resources are now classified as Private Use Network (PUN) generators. The aggregate installed capacity for these new PUN units is almost 1,700 MW," the SARA stated

"The summer capacity planning reserve margin is forecasted at 22.8%, after accounting for forecasted customer demand, emergency demand reduction programs, typical unplanned outages, and typical renewable output," the SARA stated

The SARA indicates a risk for load shed under an Extreme Peak Load / Extreme Unplanned Outages / Typical Renewable Output scenario, and a High Peak Load / Extreme Unplanned Outages / Extreme Low Wind Output scenario

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