|
|
|
|
New ERCOT Winter SARA Report Forecasts Avoidance Of Load Shed Under Most Scenarios
The following story is brought free of charge to readers by EC Infosystems, the exclusive EDI provider of EnergyChoiceMatters.com
ERCOT posted its November 2022 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region and its Winter 2022-2023 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Report
The Nov 2022 CDR report shows the following reserve margins (May 2022 CDR data also shown)
The forecasted peak demand for summer 2023 is 82,739 MW, while the firm peak demand (which excludes
curtailable loads) is 80,218 MW. The winter 2023-24 peak demand forecast is 69,367 MW and firm peak
demand forecast is 66,645 MW
The peak demand forecast incorporates expected load increases during the seasonal peak demand hours
due to interconnection of Large Loads (such as crypto-mining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider
networks. There are also Large Loads, totalling 3,075 MW, that have been connected directly to generation
plants. For this CDR report, such co-located Large Loads are not netted against the generation capacities
and are thus assumed to be fully curtailable if needed by ERCOT when reserve capacity is tight. This is an
interim CDR planning assumption to be used until ERCOT implements a forecast methodology for
addressing Large Loads in Reserve Margins. ERCOT has also adopted the policy of not identifying the
generating units with co-located Large Loads in the CDR and SARA until formal reporting rules have been
adopted.
The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2023 is forecasted to be 22.2%, representing a 14 percentage
point decrease relative to the 36.2% margin reported in the May 2022 CDR report. This decrease is due
mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2023. The
Reserve Margin rises to 39.9% for summer 2024, largely reflecting solar capacity additions, much of which
represents project delays from prior years.
With respect to the winter SARA, ERCOT's report states that, "Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical winter grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates
that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide
forecasted peak demand for the upcoming winter season, December 2022 ‒ February 2023."
"The forecasted peak demand is 67,398 MW and is based on average weather conditions at the time
of the winter peaks for years 2007 through 2021. This report does not contain a weather forecast for
the winter season. The inclusion of 2021's extreme winter weather conditions increases the base
forecast relative to last year's winter peak demand forecast. The forecast also incorporates expected
load increases during the peak demand hour due to interconnection of Large Loads (such as cryptomining
facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks," ERCOT said
About 87,300 MW of winter-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for the winter peak.
This amount includes 150 MW of planned capacity expected to become operational by the start of
the winter season based on the latest developer information. Two thermal generation resources -- a
coal and a gas-fired unit totaling 685 MW --are out of service for the duration of the winter season.
The total resource amount also includes 947 MW of battery storage energy that is assumed to be
available based on an analysis of average real-time reserves contributed by battery storage during
the hours with the tightest reserves on July 13, 2022. This capacity estimate serves as a proxy for
the amount expected during a tight reserve hour for the upcoming winter, and is an interim
availability assumption to be used until a formal capacity contribution method is adopted for future
SARA reports, ERCOT said
ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of EEA1 (and not beyond EEA1) under three scenarios, including "High Peak Load / Typical Unplanned Outages / Typical Renewable Output", but no load shed in each of these three scenarios
ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of load shed under the "High Peak Load /
Extreme Unplanned Outages /
Extreme Low Wind Output" scenario (deficit of 9,234 MW in terms of Capacity Available for Operating Reserves, Emergency Conditions)
Links to reports:
CDR
SARA
ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Copyright 2010-22 Energy Choice Matters. If you wish to share this story, please
email or post the website link; unauthorized copying, retransmission, or republication
prohibited.
Latest CDR Report Also Posted
November 29, 2022
Email This Story
Copyright 2010-21 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
Reserve Margin
May Nov
2022 2022
2023: 36.2% 22.2%
2024: 46.2% 39.9%
2025: 45.9% 44.3%
2026: 44.2% 42.4%
2027: 42.8% 40.1%
NEW Jobs on RetailEnergyJobs.com:
• NEW! -- Pricing Manager -- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Pricing and Operations Analyst
-- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Sales Director
• NEW! -- Market Operations Analyst -- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Accounting Manager -- Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Sales Development Representative
• NEW! -- Operations Analyst/Manager - Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Customer Success
• NEW! -- Operations Manager - Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Marketing Associate - Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Supervisor-Commercial Operations
• NEW! -- Market Operations Analyst
• NEW! -- Customer Data Specialist
• NEW! -- Director, Regulatory Affairs, Retail Supplier
• NEW! -- Account Manager Project Manager
• NEW! -- Retail Energy Policy Analyst
• NEW! -- Incentive Specialists
• NEW! -- Utility Rates Specialist
• NEW! -- Customer Onboarding Specialist
• NEW! -- Energy Performance Engineer
|
|
|