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New ERCOT Winter SARA Report Forecasts Avoidance Of Load Shed Under Most Scenarios

Latest CDR Report Also Posted

November 29, 2022

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Copyright 2010-21
Reporting by Paul Ring •

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ERCOT posted its November 2022 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region and its Winter 2022-2023 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Report

The Nov 2022 CDR report shows the following reserve margins (May 2022 CDR data also shown)

Reserve Margin

       May        Nov
       2022       2022
2023:  36.2%      22.2%
2024:  46.2%      39.9%
2025:  45.9%      44.3%
2026:  44.2%      42.4%
2027:  42.8%      40.1%

The forecasted peak demand for summer 2023 is 82,739 MW, while the firm peak demand (which excludes curtailable loads) is 80,218 MW. The winter 2023-24 peak demand forecast is 69,367 MW and firm peak demand forecast is 66,645 MW

The peak demand forecast incorporates expected load increases during the seasonal peak demand hours due to interconnection of Large Loads (such as crypto-mining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks. There are also Large Loads, totalling 3,075 MW, that have been connected directly to generation plants. For this CDR report, such co-located Large Loads are not netted against the generation capacities and are thus assumed to be fully curtailable if needed by ERCOT when reserve capacity is tight. This is an interim CDR planning assumption to be used until ERCOT implements a forecast methodology for addressing Large Loads in Reserve Margins. ERCOT has also adopted the policy of not identifying the generating units with co-located Large Loads in the CDR and SARA until formal reporting rules have been adopted.

The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2023 is forecasted to be 22.2%, representing a 14 percentage point decrease relative to the 36.2% margin reported in the May 2022 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2023. The Reserve Margin rises to 39.9% for summer 2024, largely reflecting solar capacity additions, much of which represents project delays from prior years.

With respect to the winter SARA, ERCOT's report states that, "Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical winter grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide forecasted peak demand for the upcoming winter season, December 2022 ‒ February 2023."

"The forecasted peak demand is 67,398 MW and is based on average weather conditions at the time of the winter peaks for years 2007 through 2021. This report does not contain a weather forecast for the winter season. The inclusion of 2021's extreme winter weather conditions increases the base forecast relative to last year's winter peak demand forecast. The forecast also incorporates expected load increases during the peak demand hour due to interconnection of Large Loads (such as cryptomining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks," ERCOT said

About 87,300 MW of winter-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for the winter peak. This amount includes 150 MW of planned capacity expected to become operational by the start of the winter season based on the latest developer information. Two thermal generation resources -- a coal and a gas-fired unit totaling 685 MW --are out of service for the duration of the winter season. The total resource amount also includes 947 MW of battery storage energy that is assumed to be available based on an analysis of average real-time reserves contributed by battery storage during the hours with the tightest reserves on July 13, 2022. This capacity estimate serves as a proxy for the amount expected during a tight reserve hour for the upcoming winter, and is an interim availability assumption to be used until a formal capacity contribution method is adopted for future SARA reports, ERCOT said

ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of EEA1 (and not beyond EEA1) under three scenarios, including "High Peak Load / Typical Unplanned Outages / Typical Renewable Output", but no load shed in each of these three scenarios

ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of load shed under the "High Peak Load / Extreme Unplanned Outages / Extreme Low Wind Output" scenario (deficit of 9,234 MW in terms of Capacity Available for Operating Reserves, Emergency Conditions)

Links to reports:




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