Vistra Reports "Strong" Retail Counts & Margins -- EnergyChoiceMatters.com

Vistra Reports "Strong" Retail Counts & Margins

August 9, 2023

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Copyright 2010-23 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

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Vistra Corp. reported for its Retail segment Adjusted EBITDA of $498 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2023 (second quarter), up from $403 million a year ago, on, "strong counts and margins performance," partially offset by below normal weather experienced in all markets

Vistra specifically cited, "continued strong performance in Texas," for the Retail segment, listing the following highlights

• "Strong customer acquisition performance through differentiated product offerings (Ultimate Summer Pass, Daytime Pass and Free EV Miles)"
• "Large business markets sales performance well ahead of expectations"

Vistra also said, "Midwest and Northeast market dynamics improved as default service prices are increasing while commodity costs are declining, inverting the dynamic seen in late 2021 and 2022."

As of Q2 2023, Vistra's residential customer count was 2.411 million, flat versus Q1 2023, and compared to 2.717 million as of a year ago. The residential customer count reflects direct-to-consumer Electric/Gas Residential counts excluding municipal-aggregation and international customers.

The flat residential customer count since Q1 2023 compares favorably to a net decline of 36,000 residential customers from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023, a net decline of 88,000 residential customers from Q3 2022 to Q4 2022, and a 182,000 decline in Vistra's residential customer count from Q2 2022 to Q3 2022

Vistra said that the year-over-year decline in residential customers reflects a decline in Midwest and Northeast, "driven by value-accretive exits from NY and CT beginning Q3 2022."

Second quarter 2023 Retail volumes were as follows (TWh):

                  Q2 2022     Q2 2023
Residential          8.8         7.1
Business            13.9        14.8
Muni-Aggregation     2.5         1.4

Total               25.1        23.3

Based on its "strong performance-to-date and favorable projections for [the] balance of [the] year", Vistra narrowed its consolidated 2023 guidance ranges of Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to $3,600 million to $4,000 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $1,900 million to $2,350 million. The midpoint of the narrowed 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now $3,800 million, which is higher than the top of the potential Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range Vistra first announced in May 2022. The midpoint of the narrowed 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range is now $2,125 million.

Vistra said that it continues to anticipate closing its acquisition of Energy Harbor in the fourth quarter 2023.

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