ERCOT Releases Fall 2023 SARA

September 19, 2023

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Copyright 2010-23 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

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ERCOT has issued its Fall 2023 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Report

In the report, ERCOT states, "The ERCOT region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak demands in the upcoming fall season, October – November 2023, under normal system conditions. Under a scenario with average fall weather conditions, ERCOT anticipates a fall 2023 peak demand of 69,654 MW, which includes the impacts of rooftop solar and Large Flexible Load additions."

In the report, ERCOT states, "ERCOT anticipates there will be 99,727 MW of resource capacity available during fall peak demand hours. This amount includes 3,992 MW of operational battery storage resources plus 20 MW of planned additions; 1,053 MW of the storage resources are assumed to be available to provide energy during the highest fall net load hours. (Net load is total load minus wind and solar generation.) This battery storage capacity estimate serves as a proxy for the amount expected during a tight reserve hour for the upcoming fall and is an interim availability assumption to be used until a formal capacity contribution method is adopted for future SARA reports."

In the report, ERCOT states, "Note that a gas-steam unit (292 MW fall rating) is expected to be indefinitely mothballed on 11/24/23. Since the mothball date is well after the forecasted peak demand, the unit's capacity is assumed to be available for this SARA report. Additionally, another gas-steam unit (568 MW fall rating) is expected to be available for the winter season after changing from a summer-only operations schedule to year-around operations."

In the report, ERCOT states, "In addition to a Base scenario assuming normal system conditions, this SARA report includes six risk scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions for peak demand, unplanned thermal outages, and renewable output. One of the three elevated risk scenarios (low renewable output) results in the need for rotating outages. Among the three extreme risk scenarios, the most severe one — defined with a combination of high peak load, high unplanned thermal outages, and extreme low wind output — also results in a high risk of rotating outages."

Specifically, the High Peak Load / High Unplanned Outages / Extreme Low Wind Output scenario resulted in Capacity Available for Operating Reserves, Emergency Conditions of (4,370) MW. Less than 1,000 MW indicates risk of EEA3 Load Shed

Link to SARA

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