Texas PUC Staff Make Recommendation On Adjustment To ERCOT Long-Term Load Forecast

Texas PUC Staff have made a recommendation concerning ERCOT's request for an adjustment to the 2026 Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF) pursuant to 16 Texas Administrative Code (TAC) § 25.370(e)(2)(B), with PUC Staff supporting the use of the Batch Zero Base Load Forecast.

As previously reported, the LTLF was developed from data provided by Transmission and/or Distribution Service Providers (TDSPs) under the criteria of the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) Compliance Plan.

Barring any adjustment, the 2026 Preliminary LTLF forecasts peak load of 278,003 megawatts (MW) in 2029 and 367,790 MW in 2032.

As previously reported, ERCOT has indicated that it has concerns with using these values in the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis, given that, among other factors, supply chain issues may delay or stop forecasted load from being built

ERCOT has said in support of adjusting the LTLF, "Due to the unprecedented scale of the load included in the LTLF and known supply chain constraints extending through the medium term which bring into question the likelihood of the realization timeline for the provided load forecast values, ERCOT requests that the process in 16 TAC § 25.370(e)(2)(B) be used to adjust the LTLF to a more realistic forecast."

Staff supports ERCOT's proposal to instead use the large load forecast developed in the transitional Large Load Batch Zero process under the base loads category which are not subject to further study.

"Because the value of this adjustment is not expected to be confirmed until mid-August 2026, this approach would delay the delivery of the results of the 2026 Triennial Reliability Assessment. However, because this adjustment is based on objective, credible information that has been subject to extensive stakeholder input, it should produce more reliable LTLF values," Staff said

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