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ERCOT CDR Shows Improved Summer Reserve Margin Outlook
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ERCOT has posted its May 2025 CDR
In the CDR, ERCOT stated, "One scenario in this CDR -- using 'Protocol Prescribed' capacity resources and the new ERCOT Adjusted Load Forecast—indicates
that summer Planning Reserve Margins for 2026 through 2030 decrease significantly from year to year, and cross over to negative
values in 2028. (In contrast, for the last CDR released in February 2025, the crossover occurred in 2026/2027. The improved reserve
margin outlook is mainly due to the updated load forecast described [in the CDR].)"
As an example of the improved outlook, the December 2024 CDR (published in Feb. 2025) had forecast a Protocol Prescribed summer 2026 reserve margin of 5.2%, while the new CDR forecasts a summer 2026 reserve margin of 17.2%. The December 2024 CDR (published in Feb. 2025) had forecast a Protocol Prescribed summer 2027 reserve margin of -8.3%, while the new CDR forecasts a summer 2027 reserve margin of 9.0%.
The summer and winter reserve margins from the May 2025 CDR, based on peak load hour (not peak net load hour, which is also published in the full report), are as follows. Listed here are the "Protocol Prescribed" reserve margins, and one of several alternative scenarios, in which 50% of TSP Officer Letter Loads replaces the ERCOT-Adjusted TSP Officer Letter Loads in determining the load forecast. Further alternative scenarios are included in ERCOT's CDR, including scenarios which add TEF generation to the capacity forecast.
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May 16, 2025
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Copyright 2025 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
May 2025 CDR
Reserve Margins
Summer
Protocols 50% TSP Officer Load
2026 17.2% 12.8%
2027 9.0% -0.1%
2028 -4.4% -14.6%
2029 -10.1% -22.3%
2030 -16.8% -26.1%
Winter
Protocols 50% TSP Officer Load
2026-27 23.0% 13.8%
2027-28 3.1% -8.4%
2028-29 -11.2% -18.2%
2029-30 -19.9% -27.2%
2030-31 -23.9% -31.2%
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