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ERCOT Files Magnitude Value For 2026, Used In Determination Of Reliability Standard
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ERCOT has filed a recommended 2026 value for the magnitude criteria which is part of establishing the reliability standard under Texas PUC rules
The reliability standard established by the Public Utility Commission of Texas
in 16 TAC § 25.508 consists of three criteria: frequency, duration, and magnitude
of a loss of load event as reflected in modeled simulations. Values for the frequency and duration
criteria are established by the rule.
For the magnitude criterion, § 25.508(b)(3) provides: "Magnitude. The expected highest level of load shed during a loss of load
event for the ERCOT region, measured as the average lost load for a given
hour, must be less than the maximum number of megawatts of load shed
that can be safely rotated during a loss of load event, as determined by
ERCOT, in consultation with commission staff and the transmission
operators, with a 1.00 percent exceedance tolerance. Beginning in 2024, on
or before December 1 of each year, ERCOT must file the maximum number
of megawatts of load shed that can be safely rotated during a loss of load
event and a summary of the methodology used to calculate this value."
Based on its review and aggregation of responses from transmission operators (TOs), ERCOT recommended a magnitude value of
13,988 MW for 2026 plus a one percent exceedance tolerance
In recommending this value, ERCOT noted that, "the focus of the magnitude criterion is on the maximum MW of load shed
that can be rotated[.]"
As such, ERCOT's recommendation is based on the maximum MW from the TO's program that can
be safely shed at any one time to facilitate rotation. "For example, if a TO serves a total of 200
MW of load and from that total includes 100 MW in its load shed rotation program with a target
rotation of 50%, then the amount of load the TO would shed at any one time to facilitate rotation
would be 50 MW," ERCOT said
Based on a winter ERCOT System
peak load of 77,338 MW as the ERCOT-adjusted 75th percentile forecast, TOs reported that 13,988 MW is the systemwide amount of load from their aggregated load shed
rotation programs that could be safely shed at any one time to facilitate load shed rotation, ERCOT said
For comparison, the 2025 magnitude value, which was the first magnitude determination, was 16,000
MW with a one percent exceedance tolerance
ERCOT noted that, "Pursuant to 16 TAC § 25.508(c), ERCOT is required to conduct a reliability assessment at
least once every three years beginning on January 1, 2026, to determine whether the bulk power
system for the ERCOT Region is currently meeting the reliability standard and is likely to continue
to meet the standard for the subsequent three years. Note that it will not be known whether any
magnitude value would make that the binding criterion of the reliability standard until ERCOT has
performed the modeling for the reliability assessment in 2026."
Project 58777
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November 25, 2025
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Copyright 2025 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
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