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ERCOT Posts Generation Capacity Information in Lieu May CDR, Due To Sought Change in Long-Term Load Forecast
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On May 18, 2026, ERCOT filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) in Project No. 55999 a request for good cause exception to ERCOT Protocols Section 3.2.6(1) to not perform the May 2026 Report on Capacity, Demand, and Reserves in the ERCOT Region (CDR).
ERCOT sought this good cause exception because, as discussed further below, ERCOT has also requested to adjust the 2026 Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF), which is a forecast used to develop the CDR. Depending on which LTLF adjustment option the PUCT approves, the LTLF may not be finalized until mid-August 2026
Notwithstanding ERCOT's sought waiver of the May CDR, ERCOT has posted generation resource capacity information typically included in the CDR, but limited to the winter and summer seasons for the five-year forecast period.
ERCOT posted summer capacity of total resources as follows:
ERCOT said, "Good cause exists to deviate from ERCOT Protocols § 3.2.6(1) to not perform the May 2026 CDR during this transition year between load forecast methodologies because, if the Commission approves use of the Batch Zero load forecast adjustment to the LTLF as ERCOT recommends and the LTLF is adjusted and finalized in mid-August 2026, there would be limited incremental value in providing the CDR in September or October 2026 with the December 2026 CDR to be provided shortly thereafter."
CDR Docket: 55999
Long-Term Load Forecast
On May 18, 2026, ERCOT filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) a proposal to adjust the 2026 Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF) for use in ERCOT transmission planning and resource adequacy studies, including as a modeling input for the 2026 Triennial Reliability Assessment.
ERCOT had discussed the matter at the most recent Texas PUC open meeting
The LTLF was developed from data provided by Transmission and/or Distribution Service Providers (TDSPs) under the criteria of the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) Compliance Plan. The 2026 Preliminary LTLF forecasts peak load of 278,003 megawatts (MW) in 2029 and 367,790 MW in 2032.
ERCOT said, "Due to the unprecedented scale of the load included in the LTLF and known supply chain constraints extending through the medium term which bring into question the likelihood of the realization timeline for the provided load forecast values, ERCOT requests that the process in 16 TAC § 25.370(e)(2)(B) be used to adjust the LTLF to a more realistic forecast."
ERCOT proposed two alternative methods to adjust the LTLF:
• a historical realization rate adjustment assessing the energization success rate of computational Large Loads identified in response to ERCOT's 2025 Large Load Request for Information that were expected to energize by March 1, 2026; or
• use of the Batch Zero load forecast for Large Loads.
ERCOT recommends that the Batch Zero load forecast option be used to adjust the LTLF, including for use as the load forecast input for the 2026 Triennial Reliability Assessment modeling.
ERCOT said, "Although the adjusted load forecast under the Batch Zero option would not be finalized until mid-August 2026, ERCOT recommends the Batch Zero option because it will ultimately result in an actionable transmission development plan and therefore is a firmer starting point for anticipated load. Furthermore, the Batch Zero load forecast is based on criteria (i.e., Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) 1325 and Planning Guide Revision Request (PGRR) 145) that have received greater industry scrutiny than the criteria in the 2026 RTP Compliance Plan. The Revision Requests will be considered at the June 1-2, 2026 ERCOT Board of Directors meeting and subsequently considered by the PUCT at the July 9, 2026 Open Meeting."
Load forecast docket: Docket 59772
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May 19, 2026
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Copyright 2026 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
(MW)
2027: 185,654
2028: 212,393
2029: 229,991
2030: 231,571
2031: 233,388
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