EPA Rule Would Have Caused Rotating Outages in ERCOT During August

Under a "best case" scenario, the U.S. EPA's Cross-State Air Pollution Rule will result in a reduction in ERCOT capacity of 3,000 MW during March, April, October, and November, and 1,200-1,400 MW during all other months, including the summer months, ERCOT reported today in an updated analysis.

Link to ERCOT Analysis

Capacity reductions are even higher when including the potential for increased maintenance outages, and limited availability of imported low-sulfur coal.

Had the incremental reduction expected under even the "best case" scenario been in place in 2011, ERCOT would have experienced rotating outages during at least two days in August. ERCOT expressed concern with "significant operating challenges," both in meeting ever-increasing peak demand and in managing off-peak periods in 2012 and beyond, under the projected capacity reductions due to the federal rule.

Under a scenario incorporating the potential for increased unit maintenance outages due to repeated daily dispatch of traditionally baseload coal units, capacity reductions are projected at approximately 3,000 MW during the off-peak months of March and April; 1,200–1,400 MW during the remainder of the first nine months of the year; and approximately 5,000 MW during the fall months of October, November and possibly into December.

Under a scenario that includes both the above maintenance outages plus limited availability of imported low-sulfur coal, capacity reductions of approximately 3,000 MW are expected during the off-peak months of March and April; 1,200–1,400 MW during the remainder of the first nine months of the year; and approximately 6,000 MW during the fall months of October, November and possibly into December.