ERCOT: Rotating Outages Not Expected Absent Extreme Heat, Higher than Normal Generation Outages

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has released a preliminary summer resource adequacy assessment, in which ERCOT said that it will not likely need to issue rotating outages, unless there are a higher-than-normal number of forced generation outages or record-breaking weather conditions similar to last summer.

"Based on expected resource availability and demand levels driven by anticipated above-normal temperatures, there is a significant chance that ERCOT will need to declare an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) on multiple occasions during the summer of 2012 and issue corresponding public appeals for conservation; these EEA declarations are not likely to result in the need for rotating outages," ERCOT said.

"However, if a higher-than-normal number of forced generation outages occur during a period of high demand, or if record-breaking weather conditions similar to last summer lead to even higher-than-expected peak demands, the ERCOT system is likely to have insufficient resources available to serve those demands. This insufficiency would result in the need for rotating outages to maintain the integrity of the system as a whole," ERCOT said.

ERCOT said that drought conditions have improved during the winter on many river basins. Reservoir levels are not expected to drop below power plant physical intake limits during summer 2012, but potential risks exist while Texas remains under drought conditions, ERCOT said.

ERCOT's updated forecast for the summer peak is 67,492 MW, with total resources equaling 73,301 MW.

ERCOT noted that it is working with the Public Utility Commission of Texas to increase load management options, or voluntary interruptible load that is paid to be curtailed in an emergency situation. These are typically a mix of large industrial companies, but ERCOT noted that it is now including smaller industrial and commercial companies and is trying to facilitate the ability for these smaller customers to aggregate their load for this emergency interruptible load service.

ERCOT's preliminary summer assessment anticipates approximately 750 MW of demand reduction due to the effects of price-responsive demand, conservation appeals and other demand response programs managed by market participants, based on estimates of the results of those appeals last summer (this total is counted separately from the total resource category listed above).