ERCOT CDR Report Shows Improving Reserve Margins, Reliability Violation Moves Out One Year to 2014

ERCOT has released its May 2012 Report on the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves in the ERCOT Region, which shows improving reserve margins compared with the December 2011 forecast.

The summer 2013 reserve margin is now forecast at 14.3%, versus the December 2011 CDR forecast of 12.1%.

The target reserve margin is 13.75%.

EROT did state that, "[m]aintaining adequate reserve margins through 2013 will require that the units that were returned from mothball status prior to this summer remain in operation, and that the Sandy Creek plant become operational as currently scheduled. The Sandy Creek unit was delayed from an expected start date prior to the summer of 2012, to a new start date prior to the summer of 2013."

For the summer of 2014, the latest CDR forecasts a reserve margin of 9.8%. However, this is an improvement from 2014 forecast of 7.6% included in the December 2011 report.

The summer of 2015 forecasted reserve margin is now 6.9%.

"To ensure future electric reliability in the ERCOT region, we need to take immediate steps to address this issue — on both the supply side and the demand side of the resource adequacy equation," said ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett.

Link: ERCOT May 2012 CDR Report