ERCOT Report Shows Sufficient Capacity Two-Years Out Using New Plant Announcements, Additional Mothballed Capacity

ERCOT has filed a report with the Public Utility Commission of Texas that, using a baseline of the May 2012 Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, projects future reserve margins given several announced new generating plants not included in the May CDR report, as well as including additional mothballed capacity.

ERCOT's analysis indicates a reserve margin of 17.6% for 2013, 14.0% for 2014, then falling below the minimum reserve target for 2015, at 11.0%.

In contrast, the May CDR had forecast a 2013 reserve margin of 14.3%, and a 2014 reserve margin of 9.8%.

ERCOT's analysis may be found here (Project 40000).

As the Texas Industrial Energy Consumers have noted, a dwindling forecast reserve margin three years out is expected in an efficient market design, as this forecast deficiency corresponds to the development time for new conventional generation.

ERCOT did not fully re-calculate the CDR report, but rather only added discrete data points such as new capacity including the announced Calpine peakers, GDF Suez uprates, CPS Energy solar capacity, NRG's W.A. parish peaker, South Texas Electric Cooperative's peaker, and the incremental increase in capacity from a replacement of the Lower Colorado River Authority Ferguson unit. Furthermore, ERCOT included additional mothballed capacity not included in the "Expected Resources" category in the CDR report.

ERCOT noted that the recently announced Panda Sherman plant was already included in the May CDR.

ERCOT also removed capacity associated with the canceled Coleto Creek 2 project.