Analysis by PUCT's Anderson: ERCOT Reserve Margin Forecast Above Target Until 2018

ERCOT is not projected to dip below the 13.75% target reserve margin until 2018 (and then only by 0.5% in 2018), according to an analysis by Texas Public Utility Commissioner Kenneth Anderson.

Anderson's analysis reviews the projected December 2012 Capacity, Demand and Reserves report and is based on a "lower and more realistic" Moody's economic forecast, with which ERCOT agrees, Anderson says, and includes all mothballed generation that can be returned to service in less than 6 months and all "reliably anticipated" new generation not included in the May 2012 CDR.

Specifically, Anderson's analysis results in a reserve margin as follows:

2013: 19.59%

2014: 16.74%

2015: 14.63%

2016: 15.09%

2017: 14.37%

2018: 13.22%

In a presentation accompanying the analysis, Anderson reiterates that, "A mandatory capacity reserve margin will result in billions of unnecessary, unavoidable and largely un-hedgeable costs to customers, without guaranteeing rolling blackouts will not occur."

Link to Anderson's presentation