Danger: PECO Now Seeing Decline in Residential Customers on Competitive Supply

PECO has recorded its third consecutive week of witnessing a decline in the total number of electric customers on competitive supply, but the decline has now reached the residential class as well, according to the December 19 stats from the Pennsylvania PUC.

Link to 12/19/12 Weekly Migration Report

Matters has also developed a comparison of the migration levels from the 12/12/12 Report to the 12/19/12 Report.

Link to Matters' Comparison of Weekly Migration

The striking figure from the December 19 report is that, per PUC data, PECO saw a net decline of 531 residential customers on competitive supply from December 12 to December 18.

It's the third consecutive week PECO has seen a decline in total shopping customers (622 for the most recent week), but it's the first week in which the residential class has seen a net decline in shopped accounts.

This decline in residential shopping is notable because it comes after a significant increase in the PECO residential Price to Compare effective October 1. Indeed, with the exception of two renewable products, all 46 residential offers on PA Power Switch for PECO customers are below the Price to Compare, with many offering savings of 30%.

Although PPL, which saw its rate caps lifted a year earlier than PECO, went through a period of stagnation in residential shopping during 2011 (e.g. a year after rate cap expiration), and then a weekly see-saw from a net gain to net loss on competitive supply depending on the week, such stagnation occurred when residential migration had reached over 40% of accounts. PECO residential migration is only at 30% of accounts. Moreover, the experience at PPL occurred as headroom shrunk as the Price to Compare became more competitive, due to a new supply portfolio and/or credits under bypassable reconciliations, as compared to the favorable Price to Compare currently in place at PECO.

Though we are left to speculation, barring an error in the PUC data or data issue at PECO which has affected enrollments, the data could suggest a wholesale drop of customers to default service by a supplier exiting the market, thereby masking any new shopping growth.

Elsewhere, PPL saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply increase by 762 accounts from December 9 to December 15, versus the week-ago growth of 289 accounts.

From December 13 to December 19, West Penn Power saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply grow by about 1,750 accounts, essentially the same as the week-ago growth.

From December 13 to December 19, Met-Ed saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply grow by over 1,150 accounts, versus the week-ago growth of 1,000 accounts.

From December 13 to December 19, Penelec saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply grow by 1,050 accounts, versus the week-ago growth of 900 accounts.

During the most recent week, Duquesne Light saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply grow by 626 accounts, versus the week-ago growth of 737 accounts.

From December 13 to December 19, Penn Power saw the number of residential customers on competitive supply increase by 238 accounts, versus the week-ago growth of 240 accounts.