AmerenCILCO Sees Loss of Residential Customers on Competitive Supply; Raises Questions on Viability of Non-Aggregation Mass Market

Ameren Rate Zone II (CILCO) saw a net decline in the number of residential electric customers on competitive supply from October 31, 2012 to November 30, 2012, according to a snapshot of statistics posted by the Illinois Commerce Commission.

The Plug-In Illinois site has been updated with the number of residential accounts migrated to (and billed on) competitive supply as of November 30. More detailed statistics (such as % of customers switched and load data), and statistics for non-residential classes, have not yet been posted as of press time.

Notable in the stats, as reported on Plug-In Illinois, is that from October 31, 2012 to November 30, 2012, Ameren Rate Zone II saw a net loss of 856 residential electric customers on competitive supply.

That compares to growth of 1,400 customers from September 30, 2012 to October 31, 2012, and it is the first monthly net decline in residential shopping for the territory since meaningful customer residential migration was first seen in 2011.

While the two other Ameren rate zones saw increases in residential shopping, as did Commonwealth Edison, the monthly growth in November was markedly slower than seen in recent months.

While this lull in migration growth will certainly be temporary until delivery starts under the next wave of municipal aggregations approved on the November ballot (including close to 1 million accounts at Chicago), the meager growth -- and net loss at CILCO -- during a lull of aggregation activity raises new questions concerning the viability of the non-aggregation residential market in Illinois, particularly as the ICC considers rules governing the marketing of aggregation pricing to customers already on competitive supply.

As previously noted, the ICC migration statistics discussed in this story reflect customers who have switched to a competitive supplier and have completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply. Accordingly, the data lags completed enrollments.

According to the Plug-In Illinois report, 1.301 million ComEd residential customers had switched and completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply as of November 30, 2012, compared with 1.266 million as of October 31; 1 million as of September 30; 713,000 as of August 31; 527,000 as of July 31; 437,000 as of June 30, 2012; and 406,000 as of May 31, 2012.

The net growth of only 35,000 residential shoppers at ComEd during November is down 85% from the October growth of 266,000 residential shoppers.

ComEd has already reported that total residential migration (including customers not yet billed on competitive supply) exceeded 1.5 million as of late October, and as noted above nearly 1 million more customers could be enrolled on competitive supply at ComEd under the Chicago opt-out aggregation.

At Ameren, across all three rate zones, the aggregate growth in residential shopping from October 31 to November 30 was 6,800 accounts, versus growth of 15,000 accounts from September 30 to October 31.

Residential customers at Ameren who have switched to a competitive supplier and have completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply as of November 30, 2012 were as follows:

Rate Zone I, AmerenCIPS: 64,864

Rate Zone II, AmerenCILCO: 121,660

Rate Zone III, AmerenIP: 144,363

The net growth (loss) in residential accounts billed on competitive supply at Ameren during November, compared to the October totals, was as follows:

Rate Zone I, AmerenCIPS: +1,775

Rate Zone II, AmerenCILCO: (856)

Rate Zone III, AmerenIP: +5,870