AmerenCILCO Sees Another Month of Decreasing Residential Shopping; Questions on Viability of Non-Aggregation Mass Market Remain

For the second consecutive month, Ameren Rate Zone II (CILCO) saw a net decline in the number of residential electric customers on competitive supply, according to a snapshot of statistics posted by the Illinois Commerce Commission.

The Plug-In Illinois site has been updated with the number of residential accounts migrated to (and billed on) competitive supply as of December 31, 2012.

Notable in the stats, as reported on Plug-In Illinois, is that from November 30, 2012 to December 31, 2012, Ameren Rate Zone II saw a net loss of 716 residential electric customers on competitive supply. This follows a net loss of 856 residential electric customers on competitive supply from October 31, 2012 to November 30, 2012.

While the two other Ameren rate zones saw increases in residential shopping, the monthly growth in December repeated the markedly slower growth of November, compared to the rapid growth seen earlier in the year.

While this lull in migration growth will certainly be temporary until delivery starts under the next wave of municipal aggregations approved on the November ballot, the meager growth -- and net loss at CILCO -- during a lull of aggregation activity again raises questions concerning the viability of the non-aggregation residential market in Illinois, particularly as the ICC considers rules governing the marketing of aggregation pricing to customers already on competitive supply.

As has been noted previously, the ICC migration statistics discussed in this story reflect customers who have switched to a competitive supplier and have completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply. Accordingly, the data lags completed enrollments.

According to the Plug-In Illinois report, 1.401 million ComEd residential customers had switched and completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply as of December 31, 2012, compared with 1.301 million as of November 30, 2012; 1.266 million as of October 31; 1 million as of September 30; 713,000 as of August 31; 527,000 as of July 31; 437,000 as of June 30; and 406,000 as of May 31, 2012.

The net growth of 100,000 residential shoppers at ComEd during December is up from the November growth of 35,000 residential shoppers.

ComEd has already reported that total residential migration (including customers not yet billed on competitive supply) exceeded 1.5 million as of late October, and nearly 1 million more customers could be enrolled on competitive supply at ComEd under the Chicago opt-out aggregation.

At Ameren, across all three rate zones, the aggregate growth in residential shopping from November 30 to December 31 was only 3,300 accounts, down from growth of 6,800 accounts from October 31 to November 30 and growth of 15,000 accounts from September 30 to October 31.

Residential customers at Ameren who have switched to a competitive supplier and have completed at least one billing cycle on competitive supply as of December 31, 2012 were as follows:

Rate Zone I, AmerenCIPS: 66,925

Rate Zone II, AmerenCILCO: 120,944

Rate Zone III, AmerenIP: 146,338

The net growth (loss) in residential accounts billed on competitive supply at Ameren during December, compared to the November totals, was as follows:

Rate Zone I, AmerenCIPS: +2,061

Rate Zone II, AmerenCILCO: (716)

Rate Zone III, AmerenIP: +1,975

Separately, the ICC has also updated detailed migration data as of November 30, 2012 on its website (click here). While not as current as the snapshot stats discussed above, the detailed November 30 stats include data not presented in the snapshot data, including percent of accounts migrated, and amount and percent of kWh migrated, for both residential and non-residential customers.

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