Analysis: ERCOT Does Not Dip Below Reserve Margin Until After 2018

An updated analysis of ERCOT resource adequacy from Texas Public Utility Commissioner Kenneth Anderson shows that ERCOT is not projected to fall below the 13.75% reserve margin until after 2018.

Anderson's analysis, dated January 30 and filed in Project 40000 yesterday, is based on the December 2012 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region and incorporates ERCOT's recommendations from its 2012 Loss of Load Probability Study.

Specifically, Anderson's report includes 2,140 MW of announced new generation not included in the CDR. It also includes mothballed generation that can be returned to service in less than 6 months, which is not included in the CDR. Finally, Anderson's analysis includes the incremental additions from ERCOT Staff's recommended change in the value of the Effective Load Carrying Capacity of coastal wind (increase to 32.9%) and non-coastal wind (increase to 14.2%).

With such inputs, Anderson's analysis shows that the reserve margin will remain above 13.75% through at least 2018 (when the margin is projected at 14.9%.

Link to Anderson's analysis