ERCOT Expects Another Tight Summer

The amount of electricity available to serve demand in ERCOT will be tight again this summer, according to an analysis released by ERCOT

"Current estimates indicate that we likely will see very tight conditions on the hottest days," said Kent Saathoff, vice president of Grid Operations and System Planning for ERCOT. "There is a significant chance that ERCOT will need to issue Energy Emergency Alerts and appeal to consumers to reduce their energy use on some of those days."

ERCOT issued two reports: the final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for spring and a preliminary assessment for summer. Sufficient resources will be available to meet anticipated spring demand, as long as extreme weather well beyond expected conditions does not occur during the early part of the season when power plants are undergoing maintenance to prepare for summer.

The preliminary summer assessment anticipates a peak demand of 67,998 megawatts (MW), based on a weather outlook similar to that of 2010 and a slower-growth economic outlook. ERCOT anticipates 73,708 MW of generation capacity before accounting for power plant outages, which typically total about 2,600 MW during an operating day. This assessment counts wind power at 8.7 percent of its installed capacity, and ERCOT stakeholders are currently evaluating whether to recommend increasing that capacity value based on performance in recent years.

"Although we expect to have more resources available for summer demands than we projected at this time in 2012, we also expect higher demand this year," Saathoff said.

"Current trends call for a summer that is hotter and drier than normal," said Chris Coleman, ERCOT meteorologist. "Although we don't anticipate prolonged heat waves like those in 2011, we expect conditions in many areas to be similar to 2012."