UBS: Retail Trend is Towards More Re-Regulation; Not Further Deregulation

The trend in the retail electric sector is, "towards re-regulation; not further de-regulation," Julien Dumoulin-Smith said in a note to UBS Investment Research clients.

Dumoulin-Smith is executive director for UBS' US Electric Utilities & IPPs Group.

"We think the trend is towards re-regulation; not further de-regulation," Dumoulin-Smith said in the research note titled "Evaluating the Competitive Landscape."

"Retail growth is likely limited to existing markets," Dumoulin-Smith said.

"While talk of 'expanding' retail opportunities to market has persisted since initial re-entrenchment in a decade ago, we see little palatability of increasing 'caps' on switching in Michigan, California, alongside a host of other potential markets," the research note said.

"Additionally, we believe the short tenor of retail contracting for energy (typically only up to 1-year) will only reiterate the need for underlying capacity constructs to provide revenue visibility and fuel diversity across the grid desired by power generators and regulators alike," Dumoulin-Smith said in the research note.

UBS' research note also cites the potential for New England and New York to essentially re-regulate new build generation through state-sponsored procurements akin to California (see related story today)