Brattle Report Indicates Operating Reserve Demand Curve in ERCOT Can Achieve Resource Adequacy

An analysis filed by The Brattle Group indicates that an energy-only market with the version B+ proposal for an Operating Reserve Demand Curve can result in an equilibrium reserve margin in excess of the current minimum target.

Brattle's analysis indicated that the Operating Reserve Demand Curve B+ proposal, at a level of 2,300 MW, would, "enhance resource adequacy."

Specifically, Brattle said that the estimated economic equilibrium reserve margin with a 2,300 MW ORDC, and $9,000/MWh SWOC, is expected to fall into a range as high as 13.9%. The bottom end of Brattle's range was 10.2%. Brattle said that the wide range was due to "uncertainty" about market response.

It should be noted that Brattle's "status quo" equilibrium reserve margin at a $9,000/MWh SWOC is 9.2%, a level far below actual results in over 10 years of the energy-only market with a much lower ($3,000 for many years) offer cap.

Brattle's report was filed in Project 40000