ERCOT Prepared for Upcoming Fall and Winter Demand

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) announced that it expects to have enough power available to serve peak demand needs this coming fall and winter, even if extreme weather or an unusually high number of forced generation outages dip into its planning reserves.

The final fall Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) projects about 74,000 megawatts (MW) of generation will be available to serve about 47,000 MW of anticipated peak demand needs during October and November. Based on the current weather outlook and average plant outages during fall peak demand hours over the past five years, ERCOT expects to have nearly 20,000 MW of capacity available for operating reserves. That range could drop to just under 4,600 MW in an extreme-load and high-outage scenario.

The preliminary winter SARA projects a similar outlook for the December-February period. Currently, ERCOT expects more than 75,000 MW of generation will be available to serve anticipated peak demand during the winter months. Based on a model that anticipates weather similar to 2009, electric demand is not expected to exceed 48,000 MW this winter.

Peak demand during the 2013 summer so far has remained below historical records. Although the season continues through September for planning purposes, ERCOT typically sees its highest demand in August. During the hottest months, air conditioning use drives up electric use, especially for residential and small commercial consumers. The peak so far this year occurred on Aug. 7, at 67,180 MW, higher than the 2012 peak of 66,548 MW but well below ERCOT's Aug. 3, 2011, record of 68,305 MW.

Although drought conditions continue to affect water storage levels in much of the state, generators in ERCOT do not expect the ongoing drought to affect operations during the coming fall and winter months.

ERCOT will assess any changes to the winter forecast for the final winter assessment, which is scheduled for release Nov. 1.