Report: Percent of PJM Forced Outages During Cold Snap Grid Stress Four Times That of ERCOT

A white paper by ICF International regarding recent grid emergency conditions prompted by the polar vortex notes that forced outages in PJM as a percentage of generation were four times higher than forced outages in ERCOT.

The ICF white paper lists PJM forced outages as 36,600 MW during January 6-8 (outages were not necessarily coincident). This total includes generation which had a capacity supply obligation, and generation which may not have had a capacity supply obligation.

While these outages were not necessarily coincident, it is understood by EnergyChoiceMatters that PJM forced outages during several operating hours did exceed 30,000 MW, and even exceeded the 36,600 MW used in ICF's white paper.

In any event, the 36,600 MW forced outage total works out to about 20% of the generation which PJM relies on to meet its mandated reserve margin.

In contrast, ERCOT, which places no mandatory obligation on load to purchase from capacity suppliers, had forced outages of only 3,700 MW -- or about only 5% of the 70,000 MW of "operational generation" listed in the May 2013 CDR.

Link to ICF white paper

ICF notes, "Generally, many ISOs experienced high levels of forced outages on January 6 and 7. Additionally, winter peak demand hit records or near-records in all eastern ISOs. Many ISOs were forced to issue emergency alerts and call reserves or reduce voltage. This raises the question as to whether the system operated reasonably well under extreme circumstances, or alternatively, whether changes in the resource mix with coal retirements, increased reliance on natural gas, increased reliance on summer-only resources (notably demand resources, but also increasingly generation), and increased penetration of intermittent supply, combined with market structure changes, may be inadvertently compromising grid reliability and/or resulting in very high prices that might be avoided. We believe this question can be answered only with detailed forensic evaluation and this activity should be undertaken in the near-term."

EnergyChoiceMatters' own conclusion is that the significantly disparate forced outage rates in PJM and ERCOT indicate that ERCOT's reliance on scarcity pricing, and $5,000/MWh price cap, is providing the correct incentives for generation to be available during times of grid stress. In contrast, what level of reliability can be said to be assured under a mandated reserve margin if 20% of generation is on forced outage during a grid emergency?

Load in PJM is being compelled to pay capacity payments to attain a minimum amount of installed capacity under the assumption that having installed capacity equates to generation availability. With a 20% forced outage rate, and with PJM forced to rely on voltage reductions and public appeals for conservation to keep the lights on during Jan. 6-8, EnergyChoiceMatters believes it is incumbent on policymakers to question how these capacity payments assure that the lights stay on.