Preliminary Revised ERCOT Load Forecast Shows Reserve Margin Above 16% Until 2019

ERCOT yesterday posted a preliminary load forecast using a preliminarily revised methodology, and if the new forecast peak loads are inputted into the May 2013 Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, ERCOT is forecast to have a reserve margin in excess of 16% until 2019.

Specifically, if the preliminary revised forecast peaks are used in the May CDR, the reserve margin would be as follows:

Year   Reserve Margin
2014      16.75%
2015      16.69%
2016      17.23%
2017      17.88%
2018      16.35%
2019      13.61%
2020      12.27%

The preliminary revised forecast, still the subject of a January 27 workshop, reflects certain changes recommended by Itron, which had been retained to review ERCOT's forecasting. Itron is still working on its growth index recommendations. ERCOT expects delivery by mid-February.

The preliminary revised forecast generally forecasts peak demand growth of 1.2%-1.5%, and differs from the peak load forecast used in the May 2013 CDR as follows:

       May CDR              Prelim. Revised
Year  Peak (MW)   Growth        Peak (MW)    Growth
2014   69,807                    68,096        
2015   72,071      3.2%          69,057       1.4%
2016   74,191      2.9%          70,014       1.4%
2017   75,409      1.6%          70,871       1.2%
2018   76,186      1.0%          71,806       1.3%
2019   76,882      0.9%          72,859       1.5%
2020   77,608      0.9%          73,784       1.3%
2021   78,380      1.0%          74,710       1.3%
2022   79,055      0.9%          75,631       1.2%
2023   79,651      0.8%          76,550       1.2%
2024    N/A        N/A           77,471       1.2%