ERCOT New Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report, To Be Issued On Feb. 28, Will Include New Load Forecasting, Won't Include Wind, Planning Reserve Changes

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) announced that it will release its next 10-year outlook on Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) on February 28.

ERCOT said that ERCOT staff developed an updated load forecasting methodology in 2013, responding to changes in the relationship between economic indicators and energy demand in recent years. The new model uses growth trends in customer accounts, or premises, to project future growth in electric demand for each region served by the ERCOT grid. ERCOT released a preliminary load forecast in January.

At the Feb. 11 ERCOT Board of Directors meeting, board members instructed staff to release the next CDR report, incorporating the new forecast, as soon as possible. The report, which also will include updates to expected generation capacity, is scheduled for release on Friday, Feb. 28. The last CDR report was released in May 2013.

The new report will not reference a target planning reserve margin or adopt proposed new formulas for wind generation.

"I would like for us to better understand the pros and cons of using more operational data to set the wind capacity calculation before we settle upon a final number," said ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett.

Doggett explained that, although the updated CDR report will quantify Coastal and non-Coastal wind generation capacity separately, wind generation capacity overall will continue to count at 8.7 percent of total installed capacity. That percentage is currently considered the "effective load-carrying capability" of wind generation, although recent studies have indicated a higher percentage of capacity can be expected from existing wind generation resources in the ERCOT region during periods of peak demand. Additionally, wind generation from the Coastal region often is more prevalent during late summer afternoons, when electric demand in the ERCOT region is typically highest.