ERCOT Anticipates Sufficient Generation for Summer

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for this spring and a preliminary outlook for the coming summer.

"Although tight conditions are likely on the electric grid during the early summer months, the outlook improves by late summer, when more than 2,100 megawatts (MW) from four new natural gas-fired generation resources are slated to begin commercial operations," ERCOT said.

"While we anticipate sufficient generation for summer, conditions may become tight -- potentially requiring conservation measures to protect the grid -- if we see extremely high demand during the early summer, before these new units begin operating," said Warren Lasher, ERCOT director of System Planning.

New combined-cycle gas-fired power plants (Ferguson, Panda Sherman, Panda Temple I and Deer Park Energy Center) are scheduled to begin operating by Aug. 1, with one unit scheduled to bring new capacity on-line in early July.

Peak demand for this summer is expected to exceed 68,000 megawatts (MW). ERCOT's all-time record peak of 68,305 MW occurred on Aug. 3, 2011, during the hottest summer on record.

"We typically experience highest demand later in the summer," said Lasher. "If the new generating plants become commercially available as scheduled, we expect to have sufficient reserves to serve anticipated peak demand."

The preliminary summer report indicates operating reserves would remain above 3,000 MW with normal generation outages and 2002-2013 average weather patterns. "If more extreme weather occurs, especially during a period when a higher-than-average number of generation units are not available, there could be a need for conservation and other progressive steps to protect the grid," ERCOT said.

"We also expect to have sufficient generation to serve consumers' needs this spring," Lasher said.

Link to Summer Preliminary SARA