ERCOT CDR Shows Sufficient Reserve Margin Through 2018

ERCOT's latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows that reserve margins are expected to exceed 15 percent through 2018.

The CDR anticipates reserve margins as follows:

2015      15.7%
2016      17.1%
2017      18.1%
2018      16.5%
2019      13.6%
2020      12.4%

The latest report reflects several changes since the last CDR report was released in May, including the addition of new generation resources and improvements to the method used to forecast wind generation availability during the hours when electricity demand is highest. It also continues to use a revised load forecasting methodology that ERCOT implemented in February 2014 to reflect the changing relationship between economic growth and peak electric demand.

This CDR does not include potential impacts of several environmental regulations that are being implemented or have been proposed, including an update last week from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding its rules to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions associated with regional haze. At the time the report was released, ERCOT had not received new information from generation owners about future plans for those resources that could be affected. ERCOT recently released a report on potential impacts of the EPA’s Clean Power Plan and is developing a comprehensive study on the expected impacts of these and other regulations. The full study is scheduled for release in mid-December.

Since the previous CDR was released in May, generation companies in the ERCOT region have added more than 2,100 MW of new gas-fired generation, more than 700 MW of wind generation and a 38-MW commercial-scale solar generation facility. Planned resources that were not included in the May report include more than 1,500 MW of natural gas-fired generation, 2,500 MW of wind resources and another 105 MW of solar.

Link to December 2014 CDR