ERCOT Forecasts Sufficient Generation Available For Spring, Summer

Seasonal forecasts released by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) indicate the region will have sufficient electric generation available to serve expected peak demand requirements in the upcoming spring and summer.

"In a broad range of scenarios, ERCOT expects to have enough generation available to serve peak demand this spring," said Ken McIntyre, vice president of Grid Planning and Operations.

The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for the upcoming spring (click here) identifies more than 76,600 megawatts (MW) of generation resources available to serve expected peak demand of about 62,000 MW.

This forecast is based on average weather conditions seen during the previous 12-year period and typical seasonal generation outages experienced since December 2010, when ERCOT launched its nodal market design. It assumes the highest spring demand will occur in late May, following completion of most of the routine power plant maintenance that occurs during the spring to prepare for summer demand.

A preliminary summer SARA (click here) estimates summer peak demand at about 69,000 MW, based on 12-year average weather. Peak demand in 2014, a mild summer for Texas, reached 66,454 MW on Aug. 25. Currently, ERCOT estimates nearly 77,000 MW of available generation resources for this summer’s peak.

Available operating reserves under the current scenarios could range from more than 5,000 MW, based on the current forecast and typical outage rates, to less than 500 MW under a scenario in which demand exceeds the forecast by about 2,300 MW at the same time outages exceed the historical average by more than 2,400 MW. The latter weather scenario reflects the extreme conditions ERCOT experienced in summer 2011.