Despite Load Growth, ERCOT Forecasts Sufficient Capacity Through 2024 (Reserve Margins Above 16% Through 2023)

ERCOT's latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report indicates sufficient reserve margins through 2021 despite an increase in the load forecasts

"Based on the information we have today and current planning criteria, we continue to see sufficient planning reserve margins through most of the 10-year planning horizon," said Sr. Director of System Planning Warren Lasher. That outlook shows planning reserve margins ranging from 16.9 percent to more than 20 percent in the next five years, the period that best reflects plans by owners and developers to add new generation resources.

The December 2016 CDR forecasts the following reserve margins:

2017       16.9%
2018       20.2%
2019       19.6%
2020       19.5%
2021       19.0%
2022       16.7%
2023       16.0%
2024       14.6%
2025       13.2%
2026       11.7%

Based on average weather in the past 14 years, the peak demand for summer 2017 is forecast to reach nearly 73,000 megawatts (MW), growing to more than 77,000 MW by summer 2021. The forecast includes the expected impact of a new liquefied natural gas facility currently under development on the Gulf Coast, but does not include possible impacts of the proposed addition of Lubbock Power and Light to the ERCOT system, which is being considered by the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

Current information indicates ERCOT can expect more than 82,000 MW of resource capacity for summer 2017, growing to more than 88,000 MW by summer 2021. The CDR includes all existing generation resources that have not notified ERCOT of plans to cease operations, as well as planned resources that have secured interconnection agreements to connect to the transmission grid, any necessary air permits, and water use contracts where needed. Planned resources account for nearly 3,600 MW of expected resources next year and reflect more than 10,000 MW of expected capacity by 2021.