ERCOT Releases CDR Showing Forecast Summer 2018 Reserve Margin Under 10%

ERCOT released its latest Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report which projects a 9.3 percent planning reserve margin for summer 2018, increasing to 11.7 percent by summer 2019 as more planned generation resources begin operating.

ERCOT's CDR projects reserve margins as follows

Year    Reserve Margin
2018         9.3%
2019        11.7%
2020        11.8%
2021        11.1%
2022         9.0%

"Planning reserve margins fluctuate over time," said ERCOT CEO Bill Magness. "We see these types of shifts as the ERCOT market experiences cycles of new investments, retirement of aging resources, and growing demand for power."

Compared to the previous CDR report in May, ERCOT expects a 7,200-megawatt (MW) decrease in overall generation capacity for summer 2018. The decrease is primarily due to recently announced retirements, project delays beyond the summer 2018 peak demand period, and other factors considered in the report. The update also includes almost 3,800 MW in new generation resources that began operating this year. More than 14,000 MW of resources that meet the criteria to be included in the CDR also are planned to be in service by 2020.

System-wide peak demand in the ERCOT region is expected to grow by an average of about 1.7 percent annually over the next 10 years. The forecast peak for 2018 is just under 73,000 MW, a 1,175-MW decrease since the May report. The ERCOT system set its current all-time peak demand record of 71,110 MW in August 2016.

Link to CDR