ERCOT May CDR Shows Reserve Margins Increasing Starting In 2020

ERCOT's May 2018 Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows reserve margins increasing gradually starting in 2020

The planning reserve margin for summer 2018 has increased to 11 percent based on the resource updates incorporated in the final summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report.

ERCOT's May 2018 CDR report projects reserve margins as follows, with the projected reserve margins generally increasing, versus the December 2017 CDR, starting in 2020

Year  Reserve Margin   Reserve Margin
        Dec-17 CDR       May-18 CDR
2018         9.3%              -- 
2019        11.7%           11.0%
2020        11.8%           12.3%
2021        11.1%           12.0%
2022         9.0%           10.9%
2023           --            8.9%

Since the December 2017 CDR report, the 2019 summer demand forecast was lowered to 74,202 MW due to a delay in a new industrial facility located on the Texas coast. The peak demand forecast also has been adjusted upward starting in 2021 to reflect the planned integration of Lubbock Power & Light customers.

The CDR also reflects updated reports from generation developers on the in-service dates for gas-fired, wind and solar resources expected to go into commercial operation through 2023.

Regarding summer 2018, based on normal operating conditions, ERCOT expects to have sufficient generation to meet customer demand this summer. The final summer SARA report includes a 72,756 MW summer peak load forecast based on normal weather conditions. This forecast is more than 1,600 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set in August 2016.

Since the preliminary summer SARA was released in March, total generation resource capacity has increased by more than 500 MW due to units returning from mothball status and extended outage status, as well as a planned gas-fired resource becoming available earlier than initially expected.

Links:

May 2018 CDR

Summer 2018 SARA