Report: ERCOT Market Prices Would Have Been Less Than $1,000/MWh For 32 Hours After Winter Event Load Shed Had Ended If PUC Had Not Set Prices At Cap

Vistra Corp. commissioned a study by a third-party consultant to determine what ERCOT market-clearing energy prices would have been during February 15-19, 2021 in the absence of the PUC's order setting the price at the $9,000 cap

The consultant found that, between 22:15 on February 15th and 9:00 on February 19th, energy prices would have averaged $2,404/MWh if not for the PUC orders.

"This market outcome would mean $6,578/MWh lower real time energy prices than the prices reported by ERCOT as a result of the PUCT Orders," the consultant said

The report also examined the prices that would have resulted on individual days

For Feb. 18, the report found that protocol-based energy prices would have averaged $758/MWh, and for Feb. 19 (until 9:00 a.m.), prices would have averaged $965/MWh

The report notes that load shed dropped to 0 MW by 0:00 am on February 18th, but ERCOT continued to set prices administratively at $9,000/MWh until 9:00 am on February 19th

See the report here