ERCOT CDR Shows 24% Reserve Margin For Summer 2022, ~40% For 2023 & Beyond

ERCOT posted its December 2021 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region

The December 2021 report shows the following reserve margins

2022: 23.9%
2023: 39.4%
2024: 41.7%
2025: 40.3%
2026: 38.7%

"The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2022 is forecasted to be 23.9%. This is 4.9 percentage points lower than the 28.8% margin for summer 2022 reported in the May 2021 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2022. (Resource data comes from generation capacity developers and owners as reported in ERCOT's Resource Integration and Ongoing Operations (RIOO) system, as well as other data collection mechanisms described in the ERCOT Protocols," ERCOT said in the CDR report

"Planned resource capacity expected for the 2022 summer peak demand totals 3,224 MW. This includes 762 MW of summer-rated gas-fired resources, 363 MW of wind resources, and 2,099 MW of solar resources. These amounts of solar and wind capacity are what ERCOT expects to be available on an average basis during peak demand hours (the peak average capacity contribution)," ERCOT said in the CDR report

"The May 2021 CDR showed 16,513 MW of planned resource capacity expected for the 2022 summer peak demand. The significant drop seen in this CDR report is due to (1) delays of planned solar projects and (2) the new practice of classifying projects approved for grid synchronization as operational rather than planned resources," ERCOT said in the CDR report

"Developers also anticipate adding 1,474 MW of battery storage capacity for summer 2022. This storage capacity is currently assumed to provide grid reliability services (Ancillary Services) for short periods of time rather than to support customer demand on a sustained basis during peak demand hours. Therefore, ERCOT assigns no capacity value to this resource for the reserve margin calculations," ERCOT said in the CDR report

"ERCOT has approved resources totaling 8,288 MW of installed capacity for commercial operations since the May 2021 CDR. An additional 8,082 MW of installed capacity has been approved for synchronization to the ERCOT Grid and is waiting for commercial operations approval. Lastly, 8,465 MW of planned installed capacity became eligible for inclusion in the CDR reports," ERCOT said in the CDR report

"The forecasted peak demand for summer 2022 is 78,084 MW, while the firm peak demand is 74,977 MW. The winter 2022-2023 peak demand forecast is 64,961 MW, whereas the firm peak demand forecast is 62,119 MW," ERCOT said in the CDR report

In the CDR report, ERCOT's load forecasts are based on normal weather conditions and determined by the methodologies described in the 2022 Long-Term Load Forecast Report expected to be posted in January 2022 on the ERCOT website.

As is customary, ERCOT notes that the "CDR Working Paper" is "for planning purposes only".

ERCOT further states in the CDR Working Paper that, "This ERCOT Working Paper has been prepared for specific ERCOT and market participant purposes and has been developed from data provided by ERCOT market participants. The data may contain errors or become obsolete and thereby affect the conclusions and opinions of the Working Paper. ERCOT MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OF SAME OR THE FITNESS OR APPROPRIATENESS OF SAME FOR ANY PARTICULAR USE. THIS ERCOT WORKING PAPER IS SUPPLIED WITH ALL FAULTS. The specific suitability for any use of the Working Paper and its accuracy should be confirmed by each ERCOT market participant that contributed data for this Working Paper."