ERCOT Posts Fall Seasonal Assessment Of Resource Adequacy

The ERCOT region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak demands in the upcoming fall season, October – November 2022, under normal system conditions, ERCOT said in a fall Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA)

ERCOT anticipates a fall 2022 peak demand of 64,928 MW

ERCOT anticipates there will be 93,492 MW of resource capacity available during fall peak demand hours, which includes 5 MW of additional planned utility-scale solar capacity. ERCOT also expects to have 2,623 MW of operational battery storage resources, which includes 23 MW of planned additions. While some of these battery storage resources may help meet customer demand, they are not currently included in ERCOT’s capacity contribution for fall because they are not expected to provide sustained capacity for meeting system peak loads, ERCOT said in the report

"In addition to a Base scenario assuming normal system conditions, this SARA report includes six risk scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions for peak demand, unplanned thermal outages, and renewable output. One of the three elevated risk scenarios (low renewable output) results in the need for rotating outages. Among the three extreme risk scenarios, the most severe one — defined with a combination of high peak load, high unplanned thermal outages, and extreme low wind output — also results in rotating outages," ERCOT stated

Specifically, in the "elevated" scenario of Forecasted Peak Load / Typical Unplanned Outages / Low Renewable Output, the SARA indicates a deficit of (3,109) MW available for operating reserves. When adding both pre-EEA and EEA resources available for ERCOT deployment, the SARA under this specific scenario indicates 192 MW available for operating reserves; per the SARA, less than 1,000 MW indicates risk of EEA3 Load Shed

Link to SARA